The iPhone is gaining widespread popularity in Canada. Since June 9th, there have been almost daily articles in newspapers around the country talking about iPhone related stuff such as news and rumors. Major tech blogs have also picked up a lot of stories regarding the iPhone 3G’s release in Canada. The question is, how many iPhones will be sold in Canada?
Rogers hasn’t even begun to advertise the iPhone yet. They’ve finally posted a mini info page on it which links to Apple Canada’s page. Yesterday Fido finally changed the graphic on their main page from “Something really cool is coming July 11th” to an actual graphic of the iPhone. I have not seen one newspaper or TV ad regarding the iPhone. You would think that they would be flooding the papers and airwaves with the iPhone all day. Not one ad. Maybe they aren’t allowed to advertise it until after its release. There wasn’t a single peep out of Rogers until the Nokia N95 8gb was released. Now I see daily newspaper ads and the occasional TV commercial for it.
The company Telefonica which operates under the same name in Spain and under the O2 name in the UK has been taking preorders for the iPhone 3G. Actually it’s called pre-registering. If you sign up, they will send you the all the info about the iPhone as it becomes available and let you ‘reserve’ an iPhone. Kinda like registering for a condo presale. You don’t have to make a deposit though. In Spain and the UK, they have received 300,000 pre-registrations for the iPhone 3G. That article is posted here. That is pretty significant. Hopefully they have stock for that many but I’m sure they do.
In Canada, I personally think there is about 25,000 unlocked iPhones operating on Rogers or Fido right now. It could be more, maybe as high as 50,000. I see a lot of iPhones everywhere. Maybe even 100,000. That’s quite a bit, maybe not that much. But no one really knows.
In the first two months of sale, I think Rogers and Fido will sell 100,000 iPhones in Canada. Now I could be way off, but that is just my guess. First of all, I think about 75% of current iPhone owners in Canada will upgrade to the 3G. I guess this is somewhat dependent on how leinient their upgrade policy is when you are already under contract. I think there will also be thousands who split with Telus and Bell to get the iPhone. They will probably begging their customers not to leave. By the end of the year, I think there will have been about 300,000 iPhone sales in Canada. If you agree or disagree, let me know.
Rogers will have to get the word out and start a major advertising campaign soon or right when its released too. I bet there are a lot of people out there that still don’t know what an iPhone is but would be pretty impressed once they do find out about it. The more they have in stock, the more they will sell.
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June 26th, 2008 at 2:00 am
Why advertise with all the Internet savy iPhone fanboys? By the way, Apple has been pushing the iPhone in Canada via Google Adsense. Not as flashy as TV or full page newspaper ads, but perhaps more effective. I think Rogers and co are worried about not having enough iPhones in July to service existing demand, so no point in spending money on expensive advertising.
June 26th, 2008 at 6:52 am
it will be smart for apple and rogers/fido to overstock on iphones. when demand is high, they will sell alot more products. if they can handle to sell an iphone to everyone who wants one they will be in the money. i honestly think if they cannot meet demand some people may just get another phone, once they relize rate prices and all that junk. like my cousin is getting an iphone and he had a contract with telus. his 2 year term expired like 2 days after the iphone was announced, he’s now waiting to get the iphone instead of getting another phone and he is switching from telus; they havent done anything spectacular to keep him there. either way i cant wait and i am looking forward to my iphone 3g
June 26th, 2008 at 8:00 am
What sites are advertising the iPhone with adsense? I haven’t seen any ads yet.
June 26th, 2008 at 8:04 am
Yeah, if only they can keep up with the demand. They need to make sure that everyone who wants to buy one for the first week is able to buy one.
June 26th, 2008 at 8:16 am
“First of all, I think about 75% of current iPhone owners in Canada will upgrade to the 3G.”
If you’re right, that means there could be a real flood of used iPhones on the market. I’m still seeing unlocked and unauthorized phones on craigslist for $400-$500+. Do you think those prices will hold once the new ones are out?
I’m not crazy about signing a contract with Robbers, but if I can get a brand new 3G with a data plan and a warranty for $199, why would I spend $400+ for a used, unauthorized, unwarrantied phone?
June 26th, 2008 at 8:24 am
Once the 3G is out, I think the price of current iPhones will drop. The demand for them will go way down when people can get one properly with a warranty. Maybe they will be worth $200. I don’t like being under a contract all the time but I have been for years so I’m not that worried.
75% may be a high number and it may take time for them to convert but once they that the 3G is available on a decent data plan, I’m sure they’ll want to switch.
June 26th, 2008 at 8:54 am
after the initial influx i believe the number wont be as high as you expect due to the ‘3yr jail sentence’ they will tie people into. having said that, it might not be a deterrent.
a stepped rate would be a good idea.
1yr = $499
2yr = $399
etc
not a “maximum sentence only!” structure.
June 26th, 2008 at 9:46 am
Yeah that would be a good idea, I guess they do need to give us more options. People like options
June 26th, 2008 at 9:49 am
yeah i find no tv advertising kind of weird too, i mean, apple even has the ad on thier website , you can watch it,and they have released pricing, and rogers and fido are listed as the “where to buy” on the website, so, i cant see why they couldnt advertise. maybe in the fine print somewhere,
i think there will be alot lof ship jumpers from telus and belll, but many of them may not know, i think rogers would be dropping the ball bif time if they didnt start an ad campaign soon, maybe just me though,
the number of i phones sold will be dependent on how many rogers and fido can get and properly distribute, there are alot of stores out there and there will be some who run out right away and some thta have more than they need, lets just hope they get their act together for july 11
June 26th, 2008 at 9:52 am
Apple seemed to handle all the TV advertising for the 1st iPhone, maybe they will do the same in Canada.
June 26th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Altavistagoogle,
I just noticed the adsense ads on a few pages
June 26th, 2008 at 11:23 am
As far as advertising the iPhone. I asked one of my contacts in Rogers head office. Apparently Apple is setting the schedule for the advertising roll-out. So Rogers may not have much choice in what they do.
June 26th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
If you read comments following many articles about the iPhone in Canada you notice one thing. There is a very negative perception of Rogers and their data plans and their long term contracts. The mood is very dark. I would not be surprised to see very low sales of the iPhone in Canada.
June 27th, 2008 at 5:10 am
Banners at Rogers stores have finally flipped from the red and black “Something big is coming…” to “The iPhone you’ve been waiting for” picturing the iPhone 3G on a white background. I noticed this yesterday, which is oddly the same day iLounge reported that international promotion started. This would confirm Radioguy’s post. iPhoneinCanada also posted yet another confirmation of a $30 unlimited data plan. So after some apprehension, I’m starting to think Apple is the puppet master for the whole deal. If this is the case, no wonder it’s taken so long to get the iPhone here. For the sake of thousands of new and upgrading customers, could Rogers have decided to take the backseat for once?
June 27th, 2008 at 8:42 am
As per Rogers announcement today… I stand corrected.
June 28th, 2008 at 9:29 am
with the price plans we just saw yesterday, Rogers / Fido will have a very hard time selling the iPhone 3G. they will be lucky if they can get 5,000 units sold.
people will just go to ebay to get unlocked iPhone 3G instead
June 29th, 2008 at 1:43 am
honestly it would be stupid to sign with rogers with a new carrier coming in less than a year with the wireless spectrum auction ending soon. Rogers cheapest plan $60 will end up costing about $100 with the $20 dollar activity fee (it would be stupid to get the $15 dollars because you wont get early nights) plus taxes. Not to mention massive overages in daytime minutes and data. It would be better getting a blackberry on tleus or bell with unlimited data. Sign the petition at http://www.ruinediphone.com/ Rogers why didnt you just offer unlimited data for $30 or $40 with a voice plan! wouldnt they be making more money in the long run if they sold 10x more units? and if someone abused theyre gb usage just have capped it at 5 gb like at&t?